Alex Smart Alex Smart
Alex Smart Sports - Consistent Long term winning results. Get the info the books do not want you to have.
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Dec 17, 2017
San Francisco vs Stanford
San Francisco
+8 -111 at BMaker
Lost
$111.0
Play Type: Premium

Stanford is rebuilding and having some difficulties finding any rhythm and have lost 5 of their L/7 overall. They have also had a history of not performing well against WCC sides like San Francisco failing to cover 7 of their L/8 including 5 straight ATS losses as hosts. Meanwhile, SF has won 3 straight and 6 of their L/8 and are not an easy out. With that said, lets take the points with the road dog.

SF is 9-0 ATS in road games after leading their L/2 games by 10+ points at the half which has just happened and 21-8 ATS L/29 off two or more consecutive home wins. Stanford is 2-8 ATS in line games this season.

Play on SF to cover

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Dec 17, 2017
Loyola Marymount vs Washington
Loyola Marymount
+8½ -110 at GTBets
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Loyola Marymount is being under rated here according to my own numbers as they matchup well vs Washington side that will be in an emotional letdown state after battling Gonzaga last time out and losing by DDs. In Washington's recent non conference games, against similar schools like Seattle and UC Davis they won by 7 and 5 point counts. With that said, we have value here with a underdog that can light the scoreboard up in a hurry.

Washington hoops program has failed to cover 15 of their L/17 vs top tier offensive teams scoring 77 or more point per game.

Play on Loyola Marymount to cover

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Dec 17, 2017
Vanderbilt vs Arizona State
Vanderbilt
+11 -105 at Bovada
Lost
$105.0
Play Type: Premium

Arizona State enters this game the talk of college basketball, as they are undefeated on the season after beating Kansas right in their own back yard last time out. That last win was a huge effort by Sun Devils, and now they will be in an emotional letdown situation and  drained after excessive media coverage of their exploits. Now with a target on their backs, and a exaggerated market price attached to their game today, I'm moving in the opposite direction and recommending  we take the points with Vanderbilt a side that is well rested and has not played since Dec6th..

Commodores are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Play on Vanderbilt to cover

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Dec 17, 2017
Cavs vs Wizards
Cavs
-1½ -110 at 5Dimes
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Cleveland enters this game off a win vs  the Utah Jazz last night, for their 17th win and 18 trips to the hardwood. I know the Cavs played last night, and pundits continue to look at the Wizards as contenders,  but the old men from Ohio, I'm betting  will still have enough juice left in the tank to dispose of a inconsistent  team they have beaten 4 of the L/5 times SU/ATS . It must also be noted that Sundays seem to be a good day for LeBron James and company as they have won 13 straight  on this day, including 7 in a row as visitors.

Wizards are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.Cavaliers are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Cavs are 9-3 ATS L/12 games Capital One Arena. Wizards are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

NBA teams like the Wizards -average 3 pt shooting side, (33-36.5%) against a lower tier 3pt defense, (36.5% or worse) are 9-20 SU L/29 after 3 straight games , allowing a shooting percentage 42% or less for 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cleveland Cavaliers to cover

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Dec 17, 2017
Cowboys vs Raiders
OVER 45½ -115 Lost
$115.0
Play Type: Premium

The Dallas Cowboys and the Oakland Raiders, go head to head this Sunday night with both sides still clinging to play off hopes.

The Cowboys look to be clicking on offense scoring 28 and 30 points in their L/2 games, even with RB  Ezekiel Elliot out because of suspension. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott threw for 332 yards last week vs the Giants , and showing he can move the chains through the air. Today against a Raiders secondary that allowed the Chiefs and average of 12.1 yards per passing  play last week, Prescott should be ready to get it done and again and put a boatload full of points on the board helping this game go over the number. I know Oakland has not been lighting things up of late offensively, but there is more than enough talent  here for them to fight back in desperation, and also put points up on the board.  The Raiders are 12-1 L/13 OVER in non division home games  with a combined average of 55.1 ppg going on the board .

Cowboys are 10-2 L/12 after their D, allowed 10 points or less in their last game.

HC Del Rio is 9-2 OVER  in home games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game with a combined average of 53.4 ppg scored.


Over is 37-17-3 in Cowboys last 57 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

Play OVER

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Dec 17, 2017
Patriots vs Steelers
Patriots
-3 -105 at BMaker
Tie
Play Type: Premium

The Steelers are off back to back grueling games and comebacks vs Cincinnati and last week vs the Baltimore Ravens. The game against the Bengals was nasty and extremely physical and 2nd game vs the Ravens while not as ugly was exhausting , which will now have the Steelers on tired legs at the worst possible time. Meanwhile, New England had a 7 game win streak ended at Miami last time out, as Brady and company looked like they were more interested in south Florida vacation rather than their game against the Fins, and it cost them as they lost 27-20 as big road favs on Monday night. What I'm betting will happen in this tilt, is that the Pats will be ready for a bounce back, against a tired side that has worked way to hard of late.

NEW ENGLAND is 16-3 ATS  L/19 when playing with 6 or less days rest .NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS  L/9 in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5.NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 ATS  L/7 as a road favorite of 7 points or less. NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 ATS  L/7 versus good offensive teams - averaging  350 or more  yards/game .

Patriots are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

NFL Favorites (NEW ENGLAND) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games ae 32-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the New England Patriots to cover

SERVICE BIO

Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 18 years.  I have earned numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes.  

My college football picks have profited in 16 of my last 17 seasons. In 2011 I went 68% for the year.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigous event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.  In 2014 I overcame a slow start to finish 59-32 65%!  

I have been an NBA World Champion with 7 winning seasons the last 8 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled.  These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.