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Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Dec 17, 2017
Wild vs Blackhawks
-174 at betonline
Play Type: Top Premium

8* Chicago (7:05 ET): The Central Division is shaping up to be very tough this year (best division in the sport?) and that makes tonight's game between the Blackhawks and Wild pretty important. Chicago has won four in a row, but hasn't made much headway in the division race as their 37 points has them only tied for fifth. Ironically, the team they're tied with is the one they play this evening. Minnesota had lost four in a row themselves going into last night, but lost at home to Edmonton by a score of 3-2. Playing back to back nights is going to be a challenge for this club as they are still w/o their top goaltender Devan Dubnyk (listed as "week to week" w/ a lower body injury), meaning Alex Stalock is likely to be called into duty for the fifth straight game and third time in four nights. That's a heavy workload. 

Compounding the issue Minnesota and Stalock face here is that not only would it be a third start in four nights, but his previous two before that both went into extra time. Again, this is a heavy workload for a netminder not used to playing the majority of the games. While Stalock has played well (.935 save percentage L4 games), I expect that to soon subside. This would seem like a logical spot for that as the Blackhawks come in averaging a whopping 37.0 shots per their L5 games as well as 36.2 for the year here at the "Madhouse on Madison." They've scored a total of 14 goals during their four-game win streak. 

Beating Buffalo, Arizona and Florida (all here on home ice) is something you'd expect Chicago to do. So when they arrived in Winnipeg Thursday, riding a three-game win streak, there wasn't too much of a reason to be excited. But then the 'Hawks beat the Jets, and did so in commanding fashion, 5-1. Note they've been able to engineer this "turnaround" despite being a miserable 1 for 23 on the power play this month. Wait until those goals start coming. The key here though remains between the pipes where Chicago can lean on Corey Crawford, who checks in w/ a 2.15 GAA and .934 save percentage this season. He's posted a 2.39 GAA and .922 save percentage in 23 career games vs. Minnesota. The Wild, meanwhile, either have to turn to Stalock again or Steve Michalek, who has NEVER made a NHL start before. 8* Chicago

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Dec 17, 2017
North Carolina vs Tennessee
North Carolina
-1 -110 at 5Dimes
Play Type: Top Premium

8* North Carolina (3:00 ET): We have a Top 25 matchup Sunday afternoon in Knoxville w/ Tennessee hosting UNC. However, while the Tar Heels are probably deserving of their current #7 ranking (that's where I have them), I'm not sure I can say the same for the Vols, who to me, are a fringe Top 25 team at best. Now, it's not as if I think Roy Williams' team should be a prohibitive favorite in this spot; it's just that I believe in them winning here. Therefore, with that line of thinking, how could I resist taking them? 

North Carolina certainly comes into this game well-rested. They've been off since December 6th when they drubbed Western Carolina, 104-61 as 32.5-pt favorites. It was their fourth straight win, all of them coming by double digits. The Tar Heels' only loss this year was to Michigan State (at a neutral setting) where they shot an abysmal 24.6% from the floor. Despite that game, they still come in averaging an impressive 88.1 PPG, which is 15th most in the country. UNC is one of only seven teams in the country to rank in the Top 20 in offensive/defensive efficiency at KenPom. They're one of only four to rank in the Top 15 in both categories (11/14), joining the likes of Villanova, Mich State and Purdue. They have played one "true" road game previously this season and it was a rout (24 pts) of Stanford.

Tennessee also has just one loss and it also came to a team currently ranked in the Top 2, in their case being #1 Villanova. That took place back on November 23rd (three days prior to UNC's only loss) and like the Tar Heels, the Vols have bounced back w/ four consecutive wins. However, three of the four wins were by 10 pts or less, including the last one (against Lipscomb). That game was played last Saturday, so Tennessee isn't quite as well-rested as their counterparts are here. Much will be made of the fact the Vols have won five straight times here in Knoxville when hosting the defending National Champion (no matter who it is). Also, HC Williams is just 4-7 SU in "true" road games if the opponent is ranked. But this is the first time UT is hosting a Top 25 opponent when ranked themselves in seven years. I think the spotlight will be "too bright" for them. 8* North Carolina

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Dec 17, 2017
Cavs vs Wizards
-1½ -110 at 5Dimes
Play Type: Top Premium

10* Cleveland (6:05 ET): The last three games, all SU wins, have nevertheless seen the Cavs fail to cover the spread. However, with one more made basket in each game, or just one more point in the case of the last two, they would be 3-0 ATS! Overall, they're just 2-7 ATS their L9, but all Cleveland fans will want to talk about is the fact the team has lost just ONCE since November 10th, going 17-1 SU in the process. Tonight, a SU win would almost certainly equate to an ATS win as the Cavs are very short road favorites over a Wizards team that has failed to cover four in a row themselves. I know this is the second game of a back to back for Cleveland, but I like them to win big here.

The Cavs still need to improve pretty dramatically on the defensive end for me to buy them as a legit NBA Title contender. Granted, they could still easily win the East, but a 27th place ranking in defensive efficiency won't treat you so well when faced w/ the Warriors or Rockets in a potential NBA Finals matchup. However, those are the only teams that currently rank above Cleveland on the offensive end as last night saw the Cavs shoot better than 50% for a third straight game and they beat a short-handed Utah squad, 109-100. LeBron James is having a great year, even by his standards, and just turned his 60th career triple double last night (third in the last four games!). The team has made at least 10 three-pointers in 19 consecutive games. Tristan Thompson (their best rebounder) is also back in the lineup after missing 19 games. 

While the Cavs continue to lean on LeBron, Washington just got back its main superstar, John Wall. In his second game back from injury, Wall scored 15 in a 100-91 win over the Clippers on Thursday. Washington would seem to have the edge here, with Wall back and having had two days off. But Cleveland has won its last three trips to D.C. and that includes one earlier this year where LeBron scored 57 points. The Cavs have been money-burners as favorites (5-0 ATS a dog!), but this is a number we can work with tonight. The Wizards are just 4-9 ATS on their home floor this season. 10* Cleveland

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Dec 17, 2017
Cowboys vs Raiders
+3 +105 at Bovada
Play Type: Top Premium

10* Oakland (8:30 ET): When this game was initially announced as a nationally televised affair, clearly, the schedule-makers had in mind that more would be at stake. But both Dallas and Oakland have essentially been confined to "also-ran" status at this juncture of the season. The Cowboys have been victimized by the Ezekiel Elliott suspension, not to mention some key injuries on both sides of the ball. The Raiders have fallen prey to some good old regression, which I warned their faithful was likely to take hold after a 2016 that saw them go 12-4 SU despite only outscoring opponents by 31 pts. Coming into Sunday night, "America's Team" has posted B2B victories, but within their own division against two inferior foes. I don't agree w/ how this line has moved (early in the week) - at all - and will be taking the points w/ the Silver and Black.

After a well-publicized back & forth, Elliott was officially suspended (six games) before Week 10. That came right at the same time the Cowboys were w/o top offensive lineman Tyron Smith and LB Sean Lee. All those absences took their toll and the team lost its next three, never scoring more than 9 points. But after Thanksgiving, they've bounced back w/ wins over the Redskins & Giants, both times scoring 30 or more. Let's be sure to point out that Dallas had a +6 turnover margin in those two games as well. Also, while you may want to make a case that the "offense is back," I'd be very leery of this defense going against Derek Carr and company. During the three-game losing streak, Dallas allowed nearly 31 PPG. Neither Washington nor the Giants' offense is much to write home about.

Oakland was essentially dominated for the first three quarters LW at Kansas City, before scoring 15 late points to make the game seem closer than it really was. They were outgained 408-268. Coming off their own consecutive victories (both here at home), it was a very disappointing showing against a divisional foe. I will point out though that the Raiders have won their last three home games (remember, they played New England in Mexico City). I'm simply not convinced that the Cowboys should be favored in this spot. Something I've mentioned before, and will reiterate again is the "Circadian advantage" (google it!) that West Coast teams seem to enjoy in these primetime affairs. I feel Oakland still has a more realistic (albeit still unlikely) path to the postseason (by winning the AFC West). This is a "must-win" and they'll show up. 10* Oakland

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Dec 17, 2017
Rams vs Seahawks
OVER 47½ -108 Won
Play Type: Top Premium

8* Over Rams/Seahawks (4:05 ET): When we think of these teams, we think "defense," but that may be a misnomer as the Rams' offense has put up the second most points in the NFL, topped by only the Eagles team that beat them last week (in fact, the number of points the Rams lost by - 8 - represents the total difference in pts scored between the two teams). Fantasy players know that Russell Wilson - not Carson Wentz - is the top QB this season. Seattle is also off a loss, and a high-scoring at that, as they fell 30-24 in Jacksonville. This is somewhat of a tough spot for the Seahawks as they flew all the way across the country last week and back. Both teams are down key defensive personnel. So I'm on the Over here. 

Usually, in the second matchup of the year between division foes, I lean towards the Under. There's a familiarity present that typically - but not always - leads to less points being scored. But I don't think that will be the story here. First off, the 1st meeting (in LA) was only a 16-10 final in favor of Seattle. It was a fairly fortunate win for the Seahawks as they were outgained 375-241, but forced five turnovers. It was a very frustrating result from the Rams' offense's perspective. There were four different drives they moved the ball inside the Seattle 25-yard line, only to come away w/ no points. The Seahawks' defense that QB Jared Goff and company will go up against here is much different and not for the better. Already two different "Legion of Boom" members (Sherman, Chancellor) are out and now linebackers Bobby Wagner and KJ Wright may join them on the sidelines. Wagner in particular would be a massive loss.

The Rams' strength on the defensive side of the ball comes against the pass rather than the run. That's good for them b/c Seattle struggles to run and almost entirely relies on Wilson's playmaking. But they get a break in that the Rams are also down a top DB, Kayvon Webster, and already to struggle defend tight ends. That could mean trouble w/ the Russell Wilson-Jimmy Graham combo. With the Rams' offense ranking #2 in points scored league-wide and having scored 67 pts the L2 wks, they should certainly hold up their "end of the bargain" here, especially w/ the Seahawks having allowed 400+ yds in B2B games. As for Seattle, they average 28.0 PPG at home. 8* Over Rams/Seahawks

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Dec 17, 2017
Jets vs Saints
+17 -130 at 5Dimes
Play Type: Top Premium

8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): A total "hold your nose" & take the points situation. Yes, the Jets are w/o Josh McCown and gained only 100 total yds in a shutout loss to the Broncos last week. They're forced to go w/ Bryce Petty as their starting QB here. My raw power ratings (which respect the Saints greatly!) have this line only at -10.5. Petty is a downgrade from McCown for sure, but I'm not sure one that necessitates almost a full touchdown move on the pointspread. New Orleans finds itself smack dab in the middle of an "Atlanta sandwich" as they lost to the Falcons last week and will rematch w/ them (here at the Superdome) next week. The Jets have been better than all of us thought they'd be this year as they're only being outscored by 3.5 PPG. Take the points.

For years, the Saints were an "all-offense, no defense" team being carried by QB Drew Brees. This year's resurgence has come about primarily due to a vastly improved run game and defense. The "dynamic duo" of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara may find some tough sledding here, however, as the Jets' D ranks #13 against the run. Also, Kamara is coming off a game where he had to leave w/ a concussion. Because they've been off for 10 days (played Thursday last week), Kamara has gotten a full week of practice in, but that last game saw the Saints suffer tremendous attrition as 10 different players left the field due to injury. This team has performed tremendously as a favorite this season, going 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS, but this will be the first time they've been asked to lay double digits in the L3 seasons. They're just 5-12 ATS L17 times laying 10 or more pts. 

The Jets haven't been great on the road, but even w/ Petty starting for the 1st time since last year, there's value to be had here. Prior to being shutout last week, the Jets had outgained each of their previous four opponents. Going back to all the injuries the Saints suffered last week, the majority of them were on the defensive side of the ball. They could be w/o as many as three starters here - DE Hendrickson, LB Klein and DB Vaccaro - one at each level. They also could be w/o BOTH starting guards alongside the offensive line. At the very worst, the "backdoor" should be open late in the game and I can see a late Jets score getting the cover. 8* NY Jets

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Dec 17, 2017
Packers vs Panthers
+2½ +110 at betonline
Play Type: Top Premium

8* Green Bay (1:00 ET): The wait is apparently over. Aaron Rodgers will suit up for the Pack this week, ending an eight-week absence. In preparation of this announcement, I jumped on GB early this week (getting them at a nice price), but note this play is still absolutely valid. The Packers may have only gone 3-5 w/o Rodgers in the lineup, but are off B2B wins as well, both coming in overtime. They're now 7-6 SU and one-game back of the final Wild Card in the NFC. With Rodgers back, the likelihood of "running the table" (winning out) obviously increases and if the team does that, then they may improbably make the playoffs. One of the teams they are chasing is who they are playing at this week. Take the points. 

Carolina is 9-4 SU (two games ahead of GB) and off a huge win (here at home) over Minnesota. They blew a 24-13 lead LW, but were able to score the GW TD under two minutes ago. Overall, the Panthers have won five of six (only loss at New Orleans). They've played good defense all season long (allow just 302.1 YPG). But I think it's still important to note that they are only outscoring opponents by an average of less than a field goal per game. The return of Rodgers had to be a bit of a "shock to the system" for Carolina, who I don't think was anticipating facing him (was initially thought to be returning last week). 

Meanwhile, there can be no denying just how much better GB is w/ Rodgers under center. Backup Brett Hundley performed admirably in his absence, but the truth is the Pack were pretty lucky to win the L2 weeks. However, the offense did still score an average of 27 PPG the L3 wks. Rodgers impact will be felt though, primarily by Jordy Nelson, who (not surprisingly) had much better numbers when #12 was in the lineup and not Hundley. Rodgers had a 13-3 TD-INT ratio before going down w/ the collarbone injury. It's as simple here as me putting my faith in Rodgers being a difference maker. 8* Green Bay


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